Interpretation of Probability of Occurrence (probabilityOfOccurrence)
The field probabilityOfOccurrence in a SituationRecord is intended to indicate the likelihood that the described event in the SituationRecord will occur.
- The value "riskOf" is used when there is a possibility of the described event happening (e.g., risk of strong winds or risk of traffic congestion).
- The value "probable" indicates that the event is very likely to occur but does not necessarily have to happen.
- The value "certain" means that it is definite that the event is occurring or will occur. Validity, probabilityOfOccurrence, and operatorActionStatus should be considered together.
Future actions have different values for probabilityOfOccurrence, depending on the degree of certainty:
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"Certain" may only be used when there is a very high probability that an event will happen or if it is already occurring.
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"Probable" is used for planned events, but when the start time is still far in the future (e.g., roadworks planned for next year could still be rescheduled, while roadworks planned for tonight will not be moved). Managing the transition of probabilityOfOccurrence is the responsibility of the road authority. If a road authority initiates an action (or is about to initiate one soon) or has actively confirmed that the action has started, then at the time of activation, the value of probabilityOfOccurrence becomes "certain".
For SituationRecords with multiple validPeriods, the probabilityOfOccurrence within that SituationRecord will never be "certain", but always "probable". However, the SituationRecord containing the actual or announced action may have the value "certain".
If a road authority has not initiated the action itself or has not actively confirmed that it has started, the operatorActionStatus will remain "probable" for the duration of the record. At the start time, the operatorActionStatus will change according to this scheme.